For most of the last 20 years, the deal between Google and advertisers was simple: pay for placement and get traffic. It worked because Google’s business model depended on getting people off Google and onto your website.
That dependency is weakening, and if you’re still renewing your Google Ads spend on autopilot, it’s a good time to check whether you’re getting the same return you were two years ago.
What’s Changed
Google’s AI Overviews now answer many search queries directly on the results page, which means users get the information they were looking for without clicking through to any website.
The numbers are starting to show the effect. Research from search analytics company Sistrix found that appearing first in Google search results typically earns a click about 27% of the time. When those results feature an AI Overview, that drops to just 11%. The Reuters Institute reported that traffic to news websites from Google fell by a third in 2025, with industry projections suggesting a further 43% decline over the next three years.
News publishers are the most vocal about this because they’re the most immediately affected, but the same mechanism is at work across all websites that depend on Google for inbound traffic – including small business websites.
We’ve written previously about what this shift means for your website’s visibility in AI search and how AI crawlers are changing the indexing picture. Here we’re focused on what it means for your advertising spend.
Before Your Next Renewal
Google Ads and organic search sit in the same environment. If fewer people are clicking through on organic results because AI Overviews are answering their questions on the page, paid results face the same headwinds. The paid placement still appears – but the overall propensity to click is lower.
Before your next renewal, have a look at your numbers. Impressions and clicks tell you Google is showing your ad – they don’t tell you whether anyone enquired or bought anything. Look at the outcomes you can trace back to Google spend, and check whether that number has moved in the last 12 months. If you set up your Google Ads account more than 12 months ago and haven’t reviewed whether it’s generating business, that’s the first thing to fix. Google makes it easy to see how much you’re spending. It takes a bit more effort to connect that spend to enquiries and conversions, but the data is there if you look for it.
The businesses I see getting caught out aren’t necessarily spending badly – they’re just not checking. The spend becomes a line item that renews automatically while the enquiry rate quietly drifts downward.
Not All Businesses Are Equally Affected
The impact varies depending on what you’re advertising and who you’re trying to reach.
Businesses most exposed are those competing on informational or broadly searched terms – “how to choose an accountant,” “what is cloud storage,” “best CRM for small business.” These are exactly the queries where AI Overviews are most likely to answer the question without a click. If your Google Ads strategy leans heavily on these types of terms, check whether they’re still converting.
Local service businesses are less immediately affected. Searches with strong geographic intent – “plumber Northcote,” “bookkeeper Brunswick,” “electrician near me” – still tend to surface Google Maps results and local listings ahead of AI Overviews.
If your business genuinely serves a specific suburb or region and your Google Business Profile is current, you’re in a better position than most – but the timing varies by industry and all indications are this will affect every business that depends on Google traffic sooner or later.
Where Else the Budget Could Go
If you review your Google Ads and decide the return no longer justifies the spend, the question is where to redirect the budget rather than whether to keep advertising at all.
A few options that make sense for most small businesses:
- An email list is an audience you own outright. Once someone gives you permission to contact them, you can reach them without paying a platform or hoping an algorithm puts you in front of them. If you have customers and past enquiries you can email, a regular update – even quarterly – keeps you in their line of sight at minimal cost.
- For B2B service businesses, LinkedIn direct outreach and content often delivers better-qualified leads than Google Ads, particularly when your ideal client is a business owner or senior manager rather than a general consumer.
- Local directories and referral networks are underrated. Word of mouth has always driven small business growth in Australia, and a deliberate approach to referral relationships – identifying who else serves your clients and building reciprocal arrangements with them – tends to be more durable than paid search.
For your website specifically, investing in content that directly answers the questions your prospective clients ask is more valuable than it used to be. AI search tools reference content that demonstrates specific expertise, and a well-written page that addresses a real problem your clients have is more likely to be cited in an AI-generated response than a generic service page.
A Practical Starting Point
Pull your Google Ads data for the last 12 months. Look at spend versus enquiries, not spend versus clicks. If you can’t connect the spend to business outcomes, that’s the gap to close first – either by setting up proper conversion tracking or by asking your Google Ads provider to show you the evidence.
Paid search still works for many businesses. The question is whether it’s working for yours, and the only way to know is to check.
If you’d like help reviewing your digital marketing mix, get in touch.
